Electronic Resource
Article - Tax Policy and Investment in a Global Economy (NBER Working Paper No. 32180)
We evaluate the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Combining reduced-form estimates from tax data
with a global investment model, we estimate responses, identify parameters, and conduct
counterfactuals. Domestic investment of firms with the mean tax change increases 20% versus a
no-change baseline. Due to novel foreign incentives, foreign capital of U.S. multinationals rises
substantially. These incentives also boost domestic investment, indicating complementarity
between domestic and foreign capital. In the model, the long-run effect on domestic capital in
general equilibrium is 7% and the tax revenue feedback from growth offsets only 2p.p. of the
direct cost of 41% of pre-TCJA corporate revenue.
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